5-4
Playoff chances
64%
Week 10 scenarios
Before kickoff, with Monday night's week 9 game still to play.
The scenarios before kickoff are being worked out.
No week 10 result clinches or ends the No. 1 seed.
No week 10 result clinches the AFC East title.
No results found for what clinches or ends the playoff berth; what ends the AFC East title.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 10–18 · before kickoff, week 10
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
AFC East title
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
Key dates
Playoff berth
Both dates are still narrowing.
AFC East title
The clinch date is still narrowing.
No. 1 seed
Maybe earlier in week 16, Sunday's morning games. Both dates are still narrowing.
Each bar starts at the first window it can happen in. Dashed: not ruled out yet.
Ways back to control
AFC East title
- 1)NE 1 win + BUF 2 losses
No. 1 seed
- 1)NE 6 wins + JAX 3 losses + BUF loss to NYJ (wk 10) + KC loss to ATL (wk 10) + CIN loss to PIT (wk 10) + DEN loss to LV (wk 11) + PIT loss to PHI (wk 11) + CIN loss to WSH (wk 11) + PIT loss to DEN (wk 12) + BUF loss to DEN (wk 16)
The playoff berth needs none: winning out is enough. Losses are to clubs other than the Patriots.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which AFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 64% | 59% |
| Win the division | 6% | 18% |
| Wild card berth | 58% | 42% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | 0.2% | 3% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 22% | 32% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 7% | 16% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | 2% | 8% |
| Win the Super Bowl | 1% | 4% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | 0.2% | 3% |
| #2 seed | 1% | 4% |
| #3 seed | 1% | 4% |
| #4 seed | 4% | 7% |
| #5 seed | 9% | 11% |
| #6 seed | 17% | 15% |
| #7 seed | 32% | 15% |
| Miss the playoffs | 36% | 41% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.