5-4
Playoff chances
64%
Week 6 scenarios
No accolade can be clinched or eliminated by week 6's games alone.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 6–18 · after Sunday night's game, week 6
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
AFC East title
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
Ways back to control
No. 1 seed
- 1)NE 2 wins + BAL 1 loss + JAX 1 loss + KC loss to SEA (wk 7)
The playoff berth and the AFC East title need none: winning out is enough. Losses are to clubs other than the Patriots.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which AFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 64% | 59% |
| Win the division | 6% | 18% |
| Wild card berth | 58% | 42% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | 0.2% | 3% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 22% | 32% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 7% | 16% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | 2% | 8% |
| Win the Super Bowl | 1% | 4% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | 0.2% | 3% |
| #2 seed | 1% | 4% |
| #3 seed | 1% | 4% |
| #4 seed | 4% | 7% |
| #5 seed | 9% | 11% |
| #6 seed | 17% | 15% |
| #7 seed | 32% | 15% |
| Miss the playoffs | 36% | 41% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.