5-4
Playoff chances
64%
Week 9 scenarios
No accolade can be clinched or eliminated by week 9's games alone.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 9–18 · after Sunday night's game, week 9
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
AFC East title
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
Key dates
Playoff berth
The clinch date is still narrowing.
AFC East title
Maybe earlier in week 15, Saturday night's game. The clinch date is still narrowing.
No. 1 seed
Maybe earlier in week 16, Sunday's morning games. Nothing before it is ruled out yet. The clinch date is still narrowing.
Each bar starts at the first window it can happen in. Dashed: not ruled out yet.
Ways back to control
AFC East title
- 1)NE 1 win + BUF 2 losses
No. 1 seed
- 1)NE 6 wins + JAX 3 losses + DEN 1 loss + BUF loss to MIN (wk 9) + KC loss to ATL (wk 10) + CIN loss to PIT (wk 10) + PIT loss to PHI (wk 11) + CIN loss to WSH (wk 11) + PIT loss to DEN (wk 12) + BUF loss to DEN (wk 16)
The playoff berth needs none: winning out is enough. Losses are to clubs other than the Patriots.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which AFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 64% | 59% |
| Win the division | 6% | 18% |
| Wild card berth | 58% | 42% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | 0.2% | 3% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 22% | 32% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 7% | 16% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | 2% | 8% |
| Win the Super Bowl | 1% | 4% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | 0.2% | 3% |
| #2 seed | 1% | 4% |
| #3 seed | 1% | 4% |
| #4 seed | 4% | 7% |
| #5 seed | 9% | 11% |
| #6 seed | 17% | 15% |
| #7 seed | 32% | 15% |
| Miss the playoffs | 36% | 41% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.