4-5
Playoff chances
3%
Week 10 scenarios
Before kickoff, with Monday night's week 9 game still to play.
The scenarios before kickoff are being worked out.
No week 10 result clinches or ends the No. 1 seed.
No week 10 result clinches the playoff berth or AFC North title.
No results found for what ends the playoff berth or AFC North title.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 10–18 · before kickoff, week 10
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
AFC North title
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out alone is not enough; what else would do it is not settled yet.
Key dates
Playoff berth
Maybe earlier in week 15, Sunday's early games. Both dates are still narrowing.
AFC North title
Maybe earlier in week 16, Sunday's morning games. The clinch date is still narrowing.
No. 1 seed
Both dates are still narrowing.
Each bar starts at the first window it can happen in. Dashed: not ruled out yet.
Ways back to control
Playoff berth
- 1)BAL 2 wins + CLE 1 loss + PIT 1 loss + CIN loss to PIT (wk 10) + CIN loss to WSH (wk 11)
AFC North title
- 1)BAL 2 wins + CLE 1 loss + PIT 1 loss + CIN loss to PIT (wk 10) + CIN loss to WSH (wk 11)
Losses are to clubs other than the Ravens.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which AFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 3% | 19% |
| Win the division | 0.1% | 4% |
| Wild card berth | 3% | 15% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 1% | 10% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 0.2% | 5% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | <0.1% | 2% |
| Win the Super Bowl | <0.1% | 2% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| #2 seed | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| #3 seed | <0.1% | 1% |
| #4 seed | 0.1% | 2% |
| #5 seed | 0.1% | 2% |
| #6 seed | 1% | 5% |
| #7 seed | 3% | 8% |
| Miss the playoffs | 97% | 81% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.