4-5
Playoff chances
3%
Week 6 scenarios
No accolade can be clinched or eliminated by week 6's games alone.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 6–18 · after Sunday night's game, week 6
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
AFC North title
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which AFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 3% | 19% |
| Win the division | 0.1% | 4% |
| Wild card berth | 3% | 15% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 1% | 10% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 0.2% | 5% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | <0.1% | 2% |
| Win the Super Bowl | <0.1% | 2% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| #2 seed | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| #3 seed | <0.1% | 1% |
| #4 seed | 0.1% | 2% |
| #5 seed | 0.1% | 2% |
| #6 seed | 1% | 5% |
| #7 seed | 3% | 8% |
| Miss the playoffs | 97% | 81% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.