4-5
Playoff chances
13%
Week 10 scenarios
No week 10 result clinches or ends the playoff berth, AFC West title or No. 1 seed.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 10–18 · before kickoff, week 10
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
AFC West title
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out alone is not enough; what else would do it is not settled yet.
Key dates
Playoff berth
Both dates are still narrowing.
AFC West title
Maybe earlier in week 16, Friday's late afternoon game. The clinch date is still narrowing.
No. 1 seed
Both dates are still narrowing.
Each bar starts at the first window it can happen in. Dashed: not ruled out yet.
Ways back to control
Playoff berth
- 1)LV 3 wins + KC 2 losses + DEN 1 loss
AFC West title
- 1)LV 3 wins + KC 2 losses + DEN 1 loss
Losses are to clubs other than the Raiders.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which AFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 13% | 25% |
| Win the division | 1% | 5% |
| Wild card berth | 12% | 19% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 3% | 11% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 1% | 6% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | <0.1% | 3% |
| Win the Super Bowl | <0.1% | 2% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| #2 seed | <0.1% | 1% |
| #3 seed | 0.2% | 2% |
| #4 seed | 1% | 2% |
| #5 seed | 1% | 4% |
| #6 seed | 3% | 7% |
| #7 seed | 8% | 9% |
| Miss the playoffs | 87% | 75% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.