4-5
Playoff chances
13%
Week 6 scenarios
No accolade can be clinched or eliminated by week 6's games alone.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 6–18 · after Sunday night's game, week 6
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
AFC West title
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 3 ways back
No. 1 seed
UnsettledNot settled: the search ran out of room.
Ways back to control
AFC West title
- 1)LV 2 wins + KC loss to SEA (wk 7) + KC loss to DEN (wk 8), or
- 2)LV 3 wins + KC loss to DEN (wk 8) + KC loss to NYJ (wk 9), or
- 3)LV 10 wins + KC loss to SEA (wk 7) + KC loss to LAC (wk 17)
The playoff berth needs none: winning out is enough. Losses are to clubs other than the Raiders.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which AFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 13% | 25% |
| Win the division | 1% | 5% |
| Wild card berth | 12% | 19% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 3% | 11% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 1% | 6% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | <0.1% | 3% |
| Win the Super Bowl | <0.1% | 2% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| #2 seed | <0.1% | 1% |
| #3 seed | 0.2% | 2% |
| #4 seed | 1% | 2% |
| #5 seed | 1% | 4% |
| #6 seed | 3% | 7% |
| #7 seed | 8% | 9% |
| Miss the playoffs | 87% | 75% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.