4-5
Playoff chances
13%
Week 8 scenarios
No accolade can be clinched or eliminated by week 8's games alone.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 8–18 · after Sunday night's game, week 8
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
AFC West title
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out alone is not enough; what else would do it is not settled yet.
Key dates
Playoff berth
The clinch date is still narrowing.
AFC West title
No. 1 seed
Nothing before it is ruled out yet. The clinch date is still narrowing.
Each bar starts at the first window it can happen in. Dashed: not ruled out yet.
Ways back to control
AFC West title
- 1)LV 1 win + KC 1 loss
The playoff berth needs none: winning out is enough. Losses are to clubs other than the Raiders.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which AFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 13% | 25% |
| Win the division | 1% | 5% |
| Wild card berth | 12% | 19% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 3% | 11% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 1% | 6% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | <0.1% | 3% |
| Win the Super Bowl | <0.1% | 2% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| #2 seed | <0.1% | 1% |
| #3 seed | 0.2% | 2% |
| #4 seed | 1% | 2% |
| #5 seed | 1% | 4% |
| #6 seed | 3% | 7% |
| #7 seed | 8% | 9% |
| Miss the playoffs | 87% | 75% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.