3-5
Playoff chances
15%
Week 10 scenarios
No week 10 result clinches or ends the playoff berth, NFC South title or No. 1 seed.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 10–18 · before kickoff, week 10
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
NFC South title
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out alone is not enough; what else would do it is not settled yet.
Key dates
Playoff berth
The elimination date is still narrowing.
NFC South title
No. 1 seed
Both dates are still narrowing.
Each bar starts at the first window it can happen in. Dashed: not ruled out yet.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which NFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 15% | 32% |
| Win the division | 15% | 30% |
| Wild card berth | 1% | 2% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 5% | 16% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 2% | 8% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | 0.4% | 4% |
| Win the Super Bowl | <0.1% | 2% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| #2 seed | <0.1% | 1% |
| #3 seed | 3% | 7% |
| #4 seed | 12% | 22% |
| #5 seed | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| #6 seed | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| #7 seed | 0.4% | 1% |
| Miss the playoffs | 85% | 68% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.