2-5-1
Playoff chances
3%
Week 10 scenarios
Before kickoff, with Monday night's week 9 game still to play.
The scenarios before kickoff are being worked out.
No week 10 result clinches or ends the No. 1 seed.
No week 10 result clinches the playoff berth or NFC East title.
No results found for what ends the playoff berth or NFC East title.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 10–18 · before kickoff, week 10
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
NFC East title
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out alone is not enough; what else would do it is not settled yet.
Key dates
Playoff berth
Both dates are still narrowing.
NFC East title
The clinch date is still narrowing.
No. 1 seed
The elimination date is still narrowing.
Each bar starts at the first window it can happen in. Dashed: not ruled out yet.
Ways back to control
Playoff berth
- 1)WSH 3 wins + NYG 2 losses
NFC East title
- 1)WSH 3 wins + NYG 2 losses
Losses are to clubs other than the Commanders.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which NFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 3% | 10% |
| Win the division | 3% | 8% |
| Wild card berth | 0.1% | 3% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 1% | 5% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 1% | 3% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | 0.2% | 1% |
| Win the Super Bowl | <0.1% | 1% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| #2 seed | <0.1% | 0.5% |
| #3 seed | 2% | 5% |
| #4 seed | 2% | 3% |
| #5 seed | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| #6 seed | <0.1% | 1% |
| #7 seed | <0.1% | 2% |
| Miss the playoffs | 97% | 90% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.