2-5-1
Playoff chances
3%
Week 6 scenarios
No accolade can be clinched or eliminated by week 6's games alone.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 6–18 · after Sunday night's game, week 6
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
NFC East title
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 3 ways back
Ways back to control
No. 1 seed
- 1)WSH 4 wins + MIN 3 losses + SEA 1 loss + CHI loss to NE (wk 7) + SF loss to ATL (wk 7) + CAR loss to TB (wk 7) + DET loss to GB (wk 7) + GB loss to CAR (wk 8) + CHI loss to SEA (wk 8) + CAR loss to DEN (wk 9) + DET loss to MIA (wk 9) + SF loss to LV (wk 9) + GB loss to NE (wk 9) + SF loss to DAL (wk 10), or
- 2)WSH 5 wins + MIN 3 losses + SEA 1 loss + SF loss to ATL (wk 7) + CAR loss to TB (wk 7) + GB loss to DET (wk 7) + CAR loss to GB (wk 8) + DET loss to MIN (wk 8) + CHI loss to SEA (wk 8) + DET loss to MIA (wk 9) + SF loss to LV (wk 9) + GB loss to NE (wk 9) + CHI loss to TB (wk 9) + SF loss to MIN (wk 11), or
- 3)WSH 7 wins + MIN 3 losses + SEA 1 loss + CHI loss to NE (wk 7) + CAR loss to TB (wk 7) + DET loss to GB (wk 7) + GB loss to CAR (wk 8) + CAR loss to DEN (wk 9) + SF loss to LV (wk 9) + SF loss to DAL (wk 10) + DET loss to TB (wk 11) + GB loss to LAR (wk 12) + CHI loss to DET (wk 12) + SF loss to NYG (wk 13)
The playoff berth and the NFC East title need none: winning out is enough. Losses are to clubs other than the Commanders.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which NFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 3% | 10% |
| Win the division | 3% | 8% |
| Wild card berth | 0.1% | 3% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 1% | 5% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 1% | 3% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | 0.2% | 1% |
| Win the Super Bowl | <0.1% | 1% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| #2 seed | <0.1% | 0.5% |
| #3 seed | 2% | 5% |
| #4 seed | 2% | 3% |
| #5 seed | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| #6 seed | <0.1% | 1% |
| #7 seed | <0.1% | 2% |
| Miss the playoffs | 97% | 90% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.