6-2
Playoff chances
90%
Week 10 scenarios
Before kickoff, with Monday night's week 9 game still to play.
The scenarios before kickoff are being worked out.
No week 10 result clinches or ends the playoff berth, NFC North title or No. 1 seed.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 10–18 · before kickoff, week 10
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
NFC North title
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
No. 1 seed
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
Key dates
Playoff berth
Both dates are still narrowing.
NFC North title
The clinch date is still narrowing.
No. 1 seed
Maybe earlier in week 15, Saturday night's game. Both dates are still narrowing.
Each bar starts at the first window it can happen in. Dashed: not ruled out yet.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which NFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 90% | 79% |
| Win the division | 35% | 25% |
| Wild card berth | 54% | 55% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | 15% | 13% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 58% | 47% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 31% | 23% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | 15% | 12% |
| Win the Super Bowl | 6% | 5% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | 15% | 13% |
| #2 seed | 19% | 9% |
| #3 seed | 1% | 2% |
| #4 seed | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| #5 seed | 26% | 24% |
| #6 seed | 16% | 18% |
| #7 seed | 12% | 13% |
| Miss the playoffs | 10% | 21% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.