3-5
Playoff chances
23%
Week 10 scenarios
No week 10 result clinches or ends the playoff berth, AFC South title or No. 1 seed.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 10–18 · before kickoff, week 10
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
AFC South title
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out alone is not enough; what else would do it is not settled yet.
Key dates
Playoff berth
The elimination date is still narrowing.
AFC South title
No. 1 seed
Both dates are still narrowing.
Each bar starts at the first window it can happen in. Dashed: not ruled out yet.
Ways back to control
Playoff berth
- 1)HOU 2 wins + JAX 2 losses
AFC South title
- 1)HOU 2 wins + JAX 2 losses
Losses are to clubs other than the Texans.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which AFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 23% | 21% |
| Win the division | 1% | 12% |
| Wild card berth | 22% | 9% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 8% | 11% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 3% | 5% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | 1% | 3% |
| Win the Super Bowl | 0.4% | 2% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| #2 seed | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| #3 seed | 0.2% | 2% |
| #4 seed | 1% | 9% |
| #5 seed | 2% | 1% |
| #6 seed | 6% | 3% |
| #7 seed | 15% | 5% |
| Miss the playoffs | 77% | 79% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.