3-5
Playoff chances
23%
Week 9 scenarios
No accolade can be clinched or eliminated by week 9's games alone.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 9–18 · after Sunday night's game, week 9
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
AFC South title
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out alone is not enough; what else would do it is not settled yet.
Key dates
Playoff berth
AFC South title
No. 1 seed
Maybe earlier in week 16, Sunday's morning games. Nothing before it is ruled out yet. The clinch date is still narrowing.
Each bar starts at the first window it can happen in. Dashed: not ruled out yet.
Ways back to control
Playoff berth
- 1)HOU 2 wins + JAX 2 losses
AFC South title
- 1)HOU 2 wins + JAX 2 losses
Losses are to clubs other than the Texans.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which AFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 23% | 21% |
| Win the division | 1% | 12% |
| Wild card berth | 22% | 9% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 8% | 11% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 3% | 5% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | 1% | 3% |
| Win the Super Bowl | 0.4% | 2% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| #2 seed | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| #3 seed | 0.2% | 2% |
| #4 seed | 1% | 9% |
| #5 seed | 2% | 1% |
| #6 seed | 6% | 3% |
| #7 seed | 15% | 5% |
| Miss the playoffs | 77% | 79% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.