6-2
Playoff chances
>99.9%
Week 10 scenarios
No week 10 result clinches or ends the playoff berth, AFC South title or No. 1 seed.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 10–18 · before kickoff, week 10
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
AFC South title
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 2 ways back
Key dates
Playoff berth
The elimination date is still narrowing.
AFC South title
No. 1 seed
The elimination date is still narrowing.
Each bar starts at the first window it can happen in. Dashed: not ruled out yet.
Ways back to control
No. 1 seed
- 1)JAX 6 wins + BUF 2 losses + DEN 1 loss + KC loss to ATL (wk 10), or
- 2)JAX 9 wins + BUF 2 losses + DEN 1 loss + KC loss to ARI (wk 11)
The playoff berth and the AFC South title need none: winning out is enough. Losses are to clubs other than the Jaguars.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which AFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | >99.9% | 90% |
| Win the division | 99% | 84% |
| Wild card berth | 1% | 5% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | 32% | 11% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 83% | 50% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 59% | 25% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | 40% | 12% |
| Win the Super Bowl | 28% | 7% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | 32% | 11% |
| #2 seed | 31% | 18% |
| #3 seed | 19% | 22% |
| #4 seed | 17% | 34% |
| #5 seed | <0.1% | 1% |
| #6 seed | 0.4% | 2% |
| #7 seed | 1% | 3% |
| Miss the playoffs | <0.1% | 10% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.