PlayoffRace
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0-8

Playoff chances

<0.1%

Week 10 scenarios

Before kickoff, with Monday night's week 9 game still to play.

The scenarios before kickoff are being worked out.

No. 1 seed

Eliminated with

  1. 1), or
  2. 2), or
  3. 3), or
  4. 4), or
  5. 5), or
  6. 6), or
  7. 7), or
  8. 8), or

Some ways this week can go are not settled yet; more may end it.

No week 10 result clinches or ends the playoff berth or AFC West title.

No week 10 result clinches the No. 1 seed.

Seed builder

Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which AFC seedings fit and which are still possible.

Playoff odds

A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.

Chance ofStrengthCoin flip
Make the playoffs<0.1%0.2%
Win the division<0.1%<0.1%
Wild card berth<0.1%0.2%
No. 1 seed and bye<0.1%<0.1%
Postseason
Reach the Divisional Round<0.1%<0.1%
Reach the Conference Championship<0.1%<0.1%
Reach the Super Bowl<0.1%<0.1%
Win the Super Bowl<0.1%<0.1%
Final seed
#1 seed<0.1%<0.1%
#2 seed<0.1%<0.1%
#3 seed<0.1%<0.1%
#4 seed<0.1%<0.1%
#5 seed<0.1%<0.1%
#6 seed<0.1%<0.1%
#7 seed<0.1%0.1%
Miss the playoffs>99.9%99.8%

Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.