5-4
Playoff chances
16%
Week 10 scenarios
No week 10 result clinches or ends the playoff berth, AFC North title or No. 1 seed.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 10–18 · before kickoff, week 10
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 3 ways back
Winning out may be enough already; that search is not settled.
AFC North title
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 3 ways back
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out alone is not enough; what else would do it is not settled yet.
Key dates
Playoff berth
The elimination date is still narrowing.
AFC North title
The clinch date is still narrowing.
No. 1 seed
The elimination date is still narrowing.
Each bar starts at the first window it can happen in. Dashed: not ruled out yet.
Ways back to control
Playoff berth
- 1)CLE 1 win + PIT loss to CIN (wk 10) + PIT loss to PHI (wk 11), or
- 2)CLE 5 wins + PIT loss to PHI (wk 11) + PIT loss to BAL (wk 15), or
- 3)CLE 2 wins + PIT loss to CIN (wk 10) + PIT loss to DEN (wk 12)
AFC North title
- 1)CLE 1 win + PIT loss to CIN (wk 10) + PIT loss to PHI (wk 11), or
- 2)CLE 5 wins + PIT loss to PHI (wk 11) + PIT loss to BAL (wk 15), or
- 3)CLE 2 wins + PIT loss to CIN (wk 10) + PIT loss to DEN (wk 12)
Losses are to clubs other than the Browns.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which AFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 16% | 46% |
| Win the division | 1% | 12% |
| Wild card berth | 15% | 34% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | <0.1% | 1% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 4% | 24% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 1% | 12% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | 0.2% | 6% |
| Win the Super Bowl | <0.1% | 3% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | <0.1% | 1% |
| #2 seed | <0.1% | 3% |
| #3 seed | 0.1% | 4% |
| #4 seed | 1% | 5% |
| #5 seed | 1% | 7% |
| #6 seed | 4% | 12% |
| #7 seed | 10% | 15% |
| Miss the playoffs | 84% | 54% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.