7-2
Playoff chances
95%
Week 10 scenarios
No week 10 result clinches or ends the playoff berth, AFC West title or No. 1 seed.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 10–18 · before kickoff, week 10
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
AFC West title
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
Key dates
Playoff berth
Both dates are still narrowing.
AFC West title
No. 1 seed
Maybe earlier in week 15, Sunday's early games. Maybe earlier in week 14, Sunday's early games. Both dates are still narrowing.
Each bar starts at the first window it can happen in. Dashed: not ruled out yet.
Ways back to control
AFC West title
- 1)KC 1 loss
No. 1 seed
- 1)KC 1 loss
The playoff berth needs none: winning out is enough. Losses are to clubs other than the Broncos.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which AFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 95% | 89% |
| Win the division | 49% | 52% |
| Wild card berth | 45% | 37% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | 10% | 19% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 44% | 53% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 18% | 26% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | 6% | 13% |
| Win the Super Bowl | 3% | 7% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | 10% | 19% |
| #2 seed | 12% | 16% |
| #3 seed | 14% | 12% |
| #4 seed | 14% | 5% |
| #5 seed | 22% | 19% |
| #6 seed | 16% | 10% |
| #7 seed | 7% | 7% |
| Miss the playoffs | 5% | 11% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.