6-2
Playoff chances
98%
Week 10 scenarios
No week 10 result clinches or ends the playoff berth, AFC North title or No. 1 seed.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 10–18 · before kickoff, week 10
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
AFC North title
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
Key dates
Playoff berth
The elimination date is still narrowing.
AFC North title
No. 1 seed
The elimination date is still narrowing.
Each bar starts at the first window it can happen in. Dashed: not ruled out yet.
Ways back to control
No. 1 seed
- 1)CIN 2 wins + DEN 1 loss + JAX 1 loss + BUF loss to MIA (wk 11)
The playoff berth and the AFC North title need none: winning out is enough. Losses are to clubs other than the Bengals.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which AFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 98% | 80% |
| Win the division | 64% | 40% |
| Wild card berth | 34% | 40% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | 11% | 10% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 61% | 45% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 30% | 22% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | 13% | 11% |
| Win the Super Bowl | 7% | 5% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | 11% | 10% |
| #2 seed | 16% | 12% |
| #3 seed | 21% | 11% |
| #4 seed | 15% | 6% |
| #5 seed | 19% | 16% |
| #6 seed | 11% | 13% |
| #7 seed | 4% | 11% |
| Miss the playoffs | 2% | 20% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.