6-2
Playoff chances
98%
Week 7 scenarios
No accolade can be clinched or eliminated by week 7's games alone.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 7–18 · after Sunday night's game, week 7
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
AFC North title
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
Key dates
Playoff berth
The clinch date is still narrowing.
AFC North title
No. 1 seed
Maybe earlier in week 14, Sunday's late games. Nothing before it is ruled out yet. The clinch date is still narrowing.
Each bar starts at the first window it can happen in. Dashed: not ruled out yet.
Ways back to control
No. 1 seed
- 1)CIN 1 win + DEN 1 loss + JAX 1 loss + BUF loss to BAL (wk 8)
The playoff berth and the AFC North title need none: winning out is enough. Losses are to clubs other than the Bengals.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which AFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 98% | 80% |
| Win the division | 64% | 40% |
| Wild card berth | 34% | 40% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | 11% | 10% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 61% | 45% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 30% | 22% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | 13% | 11% |
| Win the Super Bowl | 7% | 5% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | 11% | 10% |
| #2 seed | 16% | 12% |
| #3 seed | 21% | 11% |
| #4 seed | 15% | 6% |
| #5 seed | 19% | 16% |
| #6 seed | 11% | 13% |
| #7 seed | 4% | 11% |
| Miss the playoffs | 2% | 20% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.