6-2
Playoff chances
92%
Week 10 scenarios
Before kickoff, with Monday night's week 9 game still to play.
The scenarios before kickoff are being worked out.
No week 10 result clinches or ends the No. 1 seed.
No week 10 result clinches the AFC North title.
No results found for what clinches or ends the playoff berth; what ends the AFC North title.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 10–18 · before kickoff, week 10
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
AFC North title
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 2 ways back
Key dates
Playoff berth
Both dates are still narrowing.
AFC North title
Maybe earlier in week 14, Sunday's late games. The clinch date is still narrowing.
No. 1 seed
The elimination date is still narrowing.
Each bar starts at the first window it can happen in. Dashed: not ruled out yet.
Ways back to control
No. 1 seed
- 1)PIT 4 wins + KC 1 loss + BUF loss to NE (wk 13), or
- 2)PIT 7 wins + KC 1 loss + BUF loss to DEN (wk 16)
The playoff berth and the AFC North title need none: winning out is enough. Losses are to clubs other than the Steelers.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which AFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 92% | 80% |
| Win the division | 36% | 44% |
| Wild card berth | 56% | 36% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | 5% | 11% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 46% | 46% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 20% | 24% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | 7% | 12% |
| Win the Super Bowl | 4% | 6% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | 5% | 11% |
| #2 seed | 8% | 13% |
| #3 seed | 12% | 13% |
| #4 seed | 11% | 7% |
| #5 seed | 25% | 13% |
| #6 seed | 21% | 14% |
| #7 seed | 11% | 9% |
| Miss the playoffs | 8% | 20% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.