5-4
Playoff chances
25%
Week 10 scenarios
No week 10 result clinches or ends the playoff berth, NFC West title or No. 1 seed.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 10–18 · before kickoff, week 10
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
NFC West title
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 3 ways back
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
Key dates
Playoff berth
Both dates are still narrowing.
NFC West title
No. 1 seed
The elimination date is still narrowing.
Each bar starts at the first window it can happen in. Dashed: not ruled out yet.
Ways back to control
NFC West title
- 1)LAR 2 wins + SF loss to DAL (wk 10) + SF loss to SEA (wk 12), or
- 2)LAR 3 wins + SF loss to SEA (wk 12) + SF loss to NYG (wk 13), or
- 3)LAR 8 wins + SF loss to DAL (wk 10) + SF loss to ARI (wk 18)
No. 1 seed
- 1)LAR 8 wins + NYG loss to WSH (wk 10) + MIN loss to GB (wk 10) + SF loss to DAL (wk 10) + CHI loss to NO (wk 11) + DET loss to TB (wk 11) + MIN loss to ATL (wk 12) + NYG loss to IND (wk 12) + CHI loss to BUF (wk 15) + DET loss to CHI (wk 17) + SF loss to ARI (wk 18)
The playoff berth needs none: winning out is enough. Losses are to clubs other than the Rams.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which NFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 25% | 37% |
| Win the division | 1% | 8% |
| Wild card berth | 24% | 29% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | 0.4% | 2% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 12% | 19% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 6% | 10% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | 2% | 5% |
| Win the Super Bowl | 1% | 2% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | 0.4% | 2% |
| #2 seed | 1% | 4% |
| #3 seed | 0.1% | 2% |
| #4 seed | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| #5 seed | 5% | 7% |
| #6 seed | 8% | 10% |
| #7 seed | 11% | 12% |
| Miss the playoffs | 75% | 63% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.