6-2
Playoff chances
77%
Week 9 scenarios
No accolade can be clinched or eliminated by week 9's games alone.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 9–18 · after Sunday night's game, week 9
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
NFC North title
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
Key dates
Playoff berth
NFC North title
No. 1 seed
Nothing before it is ruled out yet.
Each bar starts at the first window it can happen in. Dashed: not ruled out yet.
Ways back to control
No. 1 seed
- 1)DET 1 win + SF 1 loss
The playoff berth and the NFC North title need none: winning out is enough. Losses are to clubs other than the Lions.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which NFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 77% | 81% |
| Win the division | 22% | 31% |
| Wild card berth | 55% | 50% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | 8% | 19% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 42% | 50% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 19% | 25% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | 8% | 13% |
| Win the Super Bowl | 3% | 6% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | 8% | 19% |
| #2 seed | 13% | 10% |
| #3 seed | 1% | 2% |
| #4 seed | <0.1% | 0.2% |
| #5 seed | 19% | 21% |
| #6 seed | 20% | 17% |
| #7 seed | 17% | 13% |
| Miss the playoffs | 23% | 19% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.