1-7
Playoff chances
<0.1%
Week 10 scenarios
Before kickoff, with Monday night's week 9 game still to play.
The scenarios before kickoff are being worked out.
No week 10 result clinches or ends the No. 1 seed.
No week 10 result clinches the AFC East title.
No results found for what clinches or ends the playoff berth; what ends the AFC East title.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 10–18 · before kickoff, week 10
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 3 ways back
AFC East title
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 3 ways back
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out alone is not enough; what else would do it is not settled yet.
Key dates
Playoff berth
Both dates are still narrowing.
AFC East title
No. 1 seed
Both dates are still narrowing.
Each bar starts at the first window it can happen in. Dashed: not ruled out yet.
Ways back to control
Playoff berth
- 1)MIA 6 wins + BUF 4 losses + NE loss to DET (wk 10) + NE loss to BUF (wk 13), or
- 2)MIA 6 wins + BUF 4 losses + NE loss to LAC (wk 12) + NE loss to BUF (wk 13), or
- 3)MIA 7 wins + BUF 4 losses + NE loss to DET (wk 10) + NE loss to NYJ (wk 16)
AFC East title
- 1)MIA 6 wins + BUF 4 losses + NE loss to DET (wk 10) + NE loss to BUF (wk 13), or
- 2)MIA 6 wins + BUF 4 losses + NE loss to LAC (wk 12) + NE loss to BUF (wk 13), or
- 3)MIA 7 wins + BUF 4 losses + NE loss to DET (wk 10) + NE loss to NYJ (wk 16)
Losses are to clubs other than the Dolphins.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which AFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | <0.1% | 1% |
| Win the division | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Wild card berth | <0.1% | 1% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | <0.1% | 1% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| Win the Super Bowl | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| #2 seed | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| #3 seed | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| #4 seed | <0.1% | 0.2% |
| #5 seed | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| #6 seed | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| #7 seed | <0.1% | 1% |
| Miss the playoffs | >99.9% | 99% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.