6-2
Playoff chances
96%
Week 10 scenarios
Before kickoff, with Monday night's week 9 game still to play.
The scenarios before kickoff are being worked out.
No week 10 result clinches or ends the playoff berth, AFC West title or No. 1 seed.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 10–18 · before kickoff, week 10
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
AFC West title
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 1 way back
Key dates
Playoff berth
The elimination date is still narrowing.
AFC West title
The clinch date is still narrowing.
No. 1 seed
Maybe earlier in week 15, Sunday's early games. Both dates are still narrowing.
Each bar starts at the first window it can happen in. Dashed: not ruled out yet.
Ways back to control
AFC West title
- 1)KC 2 wins + DEN 1 loss
No. 1 seed
- 1)KC 2 wins + DEN 1 loss
The playoff berth needs none: winning out is enough. Losses are to clubs other than the Chiefs.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which AFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 96% | 87% |
| Win the division | 50% | 43% |
| Wild card berth | 46% | 43% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | 8% | 15% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 53% | 51% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 24% | 26% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | 10% | 13% |
| Win the Super Bowl | 5% | 6% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | 8% | 15% |
| #2 seed | 11% | 12% |
| #3 seed | 14% | 11% |
| #4 seed | 17% | 6% |
| #5 seed | 21% | 21% |
| #6 seed | 17% | 13% |
| #7 seed | 8% | 9% |
| Miss the playoffs | 4% | 13% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.