7-2
Playoff chances
88%
Week 10 scenarios
Before kickoff, with Monday night's week 9 game still to play.
The scenarios before kickoff are being worked out.
No week 10 result clinches or ends the playoff berth, NFC North title or No. 1 seed.
Control of their destiny
Weeks 10–18 · before kickoff, week 10
Where they stand
Playoff berth
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
NFC North title
Controls destinyWin out and it's theirs.
No. 1 seed
Needs helpWinning out is not enough · 2 ways back
Key dates
Playoff berth
The elimination date is still narrowing.
NFC North title
No. 1 seed
The elimination date is still narrowing.
Each bar starts at the first window it can happen in. Dashed: not ruled out yet.
Ways back to control
No. 1 seed
- 1)CHI 1 win + SF loss to MIN (wk 11), or
- 2)CHI 2 wins + SF loss to SEA (wk 12)
The playoff berth and the NFC North title need none: winning out is enough. Losses are to clubs other than the Bears.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which NFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 88% | 86% |
| Win the division | 33% | 31% |
| Wild card berth | 56% | 55% |
| No. 1 seed and bye | 14% | 20% |
| Postseason | ||
| Reach the Divisional Round | 58% | 53% |
| Reach the Conference Championship | 31% | 27% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | 16% | 14% |
| Win the Super Bowl | 7% | 7% |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | 14% | 20% |
| #2 seed | 17% | 10% |
| #3 seed | 1% | 1% |
| #4 seed | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| #5 seed | 25% | 23% |
| #6 seed | 19% | 19% |
| #7 seed | 13% | 13% |
| Miss the playoffs | 12% | 14% |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.