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Week 11 scenarios
AFC West title
Eliminated with
- 1)LV loss + DEN win + LAC win
No. 1 seed
Eliminated with
- 1)LV loss + BAL win + DEN win + LAC win + MIA win/loss + NE win, or
- 2)LV loss + DEN win + HOU win/tie + LAC win + MIA win/loss + NE win, or
- 3)LV loss + BAL win + DEN win + HOU win/tie + LAC win + MIA win/loss, or
- 4)LV loss + BAL tie + DEN win + LAC win + MIA loss + NE win, or
- 5)LV loss + BUF win/loss + DEN win + HOU win/tie + LAC win + NE win, or
- 6)LV loss + BAL win + BUF win/loss + DEN win + HOU win/tie + LAC win, or
- 7)LV loss + BAL tie + DEN win + HOU win/tie + LAC win + MIA loss + PIT win, or
- 8)LV loss + BAL tie + DEN win + HOU win/tie + LAC win + MIA loss + NE tie, or
Some ways this week can go are not settled yet; more may end it.
No week 11 result clinches or ends the playoff berth.
No week 11 result clinches the AFC West title or No. 1 seed.
Seed builder
Pin seats or set a club’s goal to see which AFC seedings fit and which are still possible.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | — | — |
| Win the division | — | — |
| Wild card berth | — | — |
| No. 1 seed and bye | — | — |
| Final seed | ||
| #1 seed | — | — |
| #2 seed | — | — |
| #3 seed | — | — |
| #4 seed | — | — |
| #5 seed | — | — |
| #6 seed | — | — |
| #7 seed | — | — |
| Miss the playoffs | — | — |
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.